Polysilicon trading in China remained largely inactive, with production cuts accelerating and wafer prices falling week on week, while downstream cell prices continued to rise and module prices held steady, according to a trade group representing China's nonferrous metals sector.

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA) said polysilicon trading remained largely stalled, with only limited exploratory orders completed. One leading producer has halted operations, while two others have implemented production cuts. January output is expected to fall by about 15% month on month, broadly in line with wafer production schedules, with February output forecast at 82,000 to 85,000 metric tons. The association said most wafer prices declined week on week, with average transaction prices at CNY 1.26 per piece for n-type G10L wafers, down 3.82%; CNY 1.32 for n-type G12R wafers, down 7.04%; and CNY 1.52 for n-type G12 wafers, down 8.43%. Downstream cell prices rose to CNY 0.41/W to CNY 0.45/W, up 4.88%, while module prices were stable at CNY 0.71/W to CNY 0.75/W.

Hoymiles has signed a supply contract with Indian renewable energy solutions provider KOSOL Energie to deliver 360 MW of its HMS series microinverters in 2026. The company said the products are optimized for India’s high-temperature, high-humidity, and high-irradiance conditions, as well as for larger module formats, large-scale commercial and industrial rooftops, and complex grid environments.

Boway Alloy has issued a profit warning, forecasting full-year 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 100 million to CNY 150 million, down 88.9% to 92.6% year on year. The China-listed parent of Vietnam-based Boviet Solar said the decline reflects impairment charges linked to high US anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Vietnam-manufactured products, which made relocating production uneconomic, as well as reduced subsidies and order losses at its United States subsidiary following passage of the United States “Big and Beautiful” Act. Boway Alloy said it is exploring equity divestment options.

PowerChina has signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract through its Colombia branch for a 251 MW solar project in Santander province, Colombia. The scope includes PV plant development, equipment supply, installation and commissioning, with a string inverter plus tracking system configuration intended to improve generation efficiency and operational stability.

Deye said it submitted an application on Jan. 27 to issue H shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company said its listing application materials were published on the exchange’s website the same day.

In a new weekly update for pv magazine, OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at the main price trends in the global PV industry.

China’s TOPCon cell prices rose for a fourth consecutive week, led by higher production costs from surging silver prices and ongoing discussions around the removal of export tax rebates. In contrast, PERC cell prices declined amid weakening demand, due to the industry’s continued technological shift towards TOPCon cells, according to trade sources.

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on January 20, Chinese TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed 2.24% higher on the week at $0.0547/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China. Meanwhile, FOB China Mono PERC M10 cells fell 2.53% to $0.0463/W over the same period.

Silver prices have surged to record highs, gaining more than 40% year-to-date, driven by rising industrial demand and increased investment flows. Chinese policy developments have also further tightened the market, with authorities introducing export restrictions on silver through 2027.

Under the new framework, only 44 approved companies are permitted to export silver under a quota-based licensing system, requiring exporters to secure approval for overseas shipments.

Market sources said silver prices have become a key variable for cell pricing, as silver now represents one of the largest cost components in TOPCon cell manufacturing. Several sources noted that even if upstream prices soften from Q2 2026, cell and module prices are unlikely to retreat to 2025 price levels should silver prices remain elevated.

Since the start of this year, downstream OPIS TOPCon cell prices have surged 46%, while TOPCon module prices climbed nearly 35%. Upstream cost increases have been more modest, with OPIS China Mono Premium—OPIS' assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in N-type ingot production—up 0.15% and N-type wafer prices up around 13% over the same period.

This week, upstream polysilicon and wafers segments showed early signs of weakness, with OPIS China Mono Premium and N-type M10 wafers down 2.34% and 2.20%, respectively. In contrast, FOB China TOPCon modules continued to edge higher by 3.48% over the same period.

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), sentiment in the wafer segment remained cautious this week, with upstream and downstream players locked in a stalemate. Despite continued price gains in cells and modules, driven by export tax rebate policy changes and rising silver prices, price increases have yet to effectively transmit upstream.

CNMIA noted that domestic end demand remains sluggish, and under cost pressure, cell manufacturers have become increasingly reluctant to accept high-priced wafers, resulting in few wafer procurement orders.

With downstream demand unlikely to recover meaningfully before the Lunar New Year, and polysilicon prices showing signs of softening, the wafer market is expected to stay weak in the near term, the association added.

Downstream sources added that higher production costs, combined with weak end-user module demand, could limit cell output levels in the longer term.

Market analysts have previously projected China’s installation demand to fall by over 20% in 2026, following the transition from feed-in-tariffs to a market-based electricity pricing mechanism. Furthermore, the planned removal of export tax rebates may weigh on overseas demand, reinforcing a bearish demand outlook for cells later this year, sources said.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.

In a new weekly update for pv magazine, OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at the main price trends in the global PV industry.

China’s TOPCon module prices rose for a third consecutive week, as market participants continued to digest the impacts of export rebates removal and higher cell prices. Beyond spot prices, prices along the forward curve have also edged higher, reflecting expectations that recent policy shifts could feed through to forward pricing.

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on January 20, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, rose 12.75% on the week to $0.115/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China.

OPIS FOB China TOPCon module forward curve indications for Q2 2026 loading cargoes were assessed at $0.120/W, up 14.29% on the week. Forward prices for Q3 2026 loading cargoes moved higher to $0.121/W, rising 15.24% on the week.

Q4 2026 loading cargoes rose 10.42% week-on-week to $0.106/W while Q1 2027 loading cargoes saw the steepest increase of 13.5% to $0.109/W.

According to one tier-1 producer, silver prices will remain a key variable. Even if upstream polysilicon prices were to soften from April onward, module prices would struggle to fall back to end-2024 levels of around CNY0.70 ($0.10)/W as long as silver prices stay at current levels. The producer added that buyers have largely accepted the higher price levels and expect the uptrend to persist.

However, some trade sources pointed to a lingering “wait and see” sentiment in the market, largely driven by uncertainty around upcoming policies, particularly China’s anti-monopoly measures, which may be limiting the full transmission of recent price increases.

While these measures are primarily focused on the polysilicon segment and the proposed consolidation platform, downstream market participants told OPIS they could also have implications for cell and module markets, where major producers have been operating under strict production and sales coordination arrangements for over a year.

Several producer sources said this could unintentionally intensify production and price competition in an industry already grappling with significant overcapacity. However, they noted that clearer regulatory guidance would still be needed before manufacturers adjust their production and sales strategies.

In early January, the Beijing Municipal Administration for Market Regulation initiated a meeting with major polysilicon producers and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association to address monopoly risks and outline rectification requirements related to anti-monopoly compliance. The rectification measures are due to be submitted to the State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) by Jan. 20.

Under the proposed framework, companies are prohibited from reaching agreements on production capacity, utilization rates, sales volumes and pricing. Capital contribution ratios should not determine market allocation, output or profit distribution, and any form of coordination or communication on prices, costs, production and sale volumes is not allowed.

Meanwhile, high inventory levels and downstream oversupply remain a headwind, making it difficult to justify current price levels, sources said. One tier-1 producer noted that the cell and module segments are likely to remain challenging in 2026, noting that it is difficult to pinpoint a clear price ceiling amid ongoing policy uncertainty, while further price increases could also weigh on power plant investment decisions.

A developer source said uncertainty remains elevated, with any further price gains dependent on the market acceptance of current module prices. The source added that while suppliers continue to push for increases, it may be difficult for module prices to keep rising given current electricity tariffs, as most new PV projects are priced through market-based mechanisms rather than guaranteed feed-in tariffs (FiTs).

Major Chinese PV manufacturers are expected to release their financial results for 2025 in the coming weeks, with several already signalling another difficult year in 2025 amid oversupply across the value chain and persistently weak prices. Depressed module selling prices and tighter trade conditions have continued to squeeze margins, with some companies reporting wider losses in Q4 2025 versus Q3.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.